The Threat of the Hermit Kingdom

Toward the end of World War II, Adolf Hitler had quite obviously gone mad.  It was a process that began years ago.  Some of his generals remarked that he was moving around units on a large map that no longer existed.  He was screaming out orders to destroy enemy units and resources but no longer had the manpower to do so.  Generals were afraid to tell him otherwise and merely affirmed his orders and left.  Since those last days of that horrible war, a singular man controlled the northern part of the Korean peninsula – Kim Il-sung.  Today, his grandson, Kim Jung-un, has continued the tradition of global provocateur that has further isolated a nuclear pariah. 

Over his time as sole dictator and quasi-deity, the father of what would later be termed the “hermit kingdom” worked as an agitator.  As an extension of the Cold War maneuvering, Il-sung enjoyed the protection of Russia and China and therefore, his reckless behavior culminating with the Korean War was supported and his image at home reinforced.  His regime was also responsible for, conservatively, over one million killings.  His death in 1994 brought to power his son, Kim Jung-il.  While his time in control of North Korea contained gestures towards its southern neighbor and even talk of re-unification, it was difficult to take these overtures seriously.  As party secretary prior to 1994, South Korea blamed him for ordering a bombing in Rangoon, Myanmar and the downing of Korean Air Flight 858 in 1987.  Now, his son is playing a dangerous game with nuclear weapons.  His nearby enemies (namely South Korea and Japan) are nervous, as are his “friends” (namely China).   

On one level, there is no evidence that North Korea has the technology to strike the United States.  However, the U.S. has long standing alliances with South Korea and Japan and because of this relationship, we are obliged to help in the event of a North Korean attack.  The president has wisely ordered various maneuverings in South Korea using stealth bombers and it is assumed that enhanced missile shields are forthcoming.  All of these are defensive and reactionary in nature.  There will be a time when the president will be forced to consider a pre-emptive strike upon intelligence that North Korea is prepared to do something.  If Jung-un appears to be ready to act upon his countless threats, the U.S. will need to decide if it should truncate the threat potential.  Japan’s military is defensive in nature and not equipped for a pre-emptive strike.  South Korea possesses a large military with plenty of weapons to destroy its northern neighbor but history has not shown that it is willing to take chances.   

It is uncertain what explains this recent round of saber-rattling.  Perhaps it was Dennis Rodman’s fault.  However, Pyongyang has made a habit of this over the last couple of decades – threaten nuclear war or missile attack, pleas from the West asking him to relax and donate supplies and food to make the point, North Korea backs off…for a while.  What generally helps the United States and a president decide how to address a crisis is an underlying trust that the opposite leader will not do certain things.  Those types of assumptions are dangerously played with regards to North Korea.  Israel, faced with a similar threat, took the initiative to destroy nuclear power plants in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007.  Israel is not in a position to allow for diplomacy to run its course – its existence lies upon the blade of the sword.  If Japan or South Korea is not willing to do it, it would be a safer option for the U.S. to strike first than to respond.   

China has lost control of its younger, demented communist brother and even it and Russia have supported increased sanctions by the United Nations.  However, the combination of North Korea’s dangerous abilities and the unknown factor of the newly appointed Kim Jung-un is a bad combination.  North Korea is more dangerous than even a country like Iran.  Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is countered by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.  Where Iran has that religious check on secular power, North Korea’s cult of personality combines the political with the religious.  The hold that this type of government has on its people is dangerous and only increases the volatility and danger of a country. 

The Death of Kim Jong Il

“For God's sake, let us sit upon the ground
And tell sad stories of the death of kings…
…for within the hollow crown
That rounds the mortal temples of a king
Keeps Death his court and there the antic sits,
Scoffing his state and grinning at his pomp…”
Richard II, William Shakespeare

Over the weekend, Americans heard the first word of the death of North Korea’s Kim Jong Il; the enigmatic, irrational, dangerous and bizarre leader of the “hermit” country. In his place, an even more mysterious figure, Kim Jong Un, to take the mantle of dictatorship. However, dictatorship does not begin to explain the depth of control exercised by the North Korean government. It is the level of control and the near brainwashed-like level of devotion that makes Kim Jong Il’s death so disturbing and so potentially dangerous.

Immediately, markets dropped throughout Asia, with South Korea’s market dropping the most as they stand in the shadow of the mysterious country. South Korea’s military, understandably, went on high alert. Japan and China must also be wary of what the death of Kim Jong Il must mean to the region, in particular and the world, in general. Increasing the concern is the size and devotion of the North Korean military – a million-strong force said to be the fifth largest in the world. While China has some influence on the country, it might not be able to control the series of events that could impact its neighbor.

There are two major areas of concern that many analysts are highlighting. The first deals the unpreparedness of Kim Jong Un. While in his late twenties or early thirties, there is not much thought that he is in a position to run the country without being some type of puppet. Who would be pulling the strings of the young marionette? There are rivalries that exist within the family, with the eldest son, Kim Jung Nam, safely in China, criticizing the order of succession. What makes him all the more intriguing is that he is a “reformer.” Would it be enough to bring North Korea from the cold should Kim Jong Un prove not ready for the bright lights?

The other area of concern lies with the three organizations within the government constantly fighting for influence and power – the party, the military and the Cabinet. According to the BBC, the military has seen a large increase of power and influence in the term of Kim Jong Il but each group has its hopes.

So, what do the surrounding countries and the U.S. do? First, I’m not sure how many messages of condolences will be forthcoming. Hard to express sympathy for one who is responsible for the utter destruction of the country’s agricultural sector, that has led to widespread starvation and poverty and ultimately, countless deaths. South Korea obviously has the most to worry about. However, its military might will not be enough in the event of a young ruler looking to display his feathers. This will bring the U.S. and its allies into the mix. To make matters worse, there is not a great deal that President Obama can do but to react best to a quickly developing situation. For Japan, its relatively small military will place it at risk should Pyongyang decide to instigate conflict. Russia has lost contact with North Korea, cutting off annual funds since the collapse of the Soviet Union. And so, if there is to be one country who stands at the greatest position of influence, it is China.

China has always viewed North Korea as the “crazy little brother” that they must protect. However, North Korea is already showing a troubling tendency. Shortly before the announcement of the death of Kim Jong Il, reports suggested several test rockets were fired along the east coast of the country. The biggest thing that the Americans, Koreans and the Japanese can do is to prepare militarily. Former ambassador to China under Barack Obama, John Huntsman, who is also a Republican candidate for president, has suggested the possibility for hope but the U.S. and the world community cannot count on that. There is simply not enough information to know for sure. Shakespeare’s Richard II was a character whose actions led to his destruction. Kim Jong Il’s actions destroyed a country and killed, potentially, millions. History abhors a vacuum and the united nations can only hope that what comes next is better than before. Hopefully.