Last
weekend, European and American leaders, in negotiations with Iranian
representatives in Geneva, Switzerland, struck a six-month deal to limit the
enrichment of uranium. It is hoped that
this agreement is the first step towards slowing Iran’s search for a nuclear
weapon. However, as a historian, I hope
this is not the Munich Agreement of our times.
At its core is a trust (or hope) that Iran will fulfill its obligations
as it sincerely presented them at the negotiation table. Despite this, there is a fear that the
western European leaders and President Obama do not end up looking like the
appeasers – a group of leaders who hoped, against history, that the promises
slipping from the mouths of tyrants do not end up costing us dearly in the end.
It
is often said that the current elected leader of Iran, President Hassan
Rouhani, is a moderate. Keep in mind
that in a country like Iran, “moderate” does not translate to a western
definition. If indeed he is not the
promise that many westerners desperately hope he is, the question must be asked
about the motivation of Iran. Iran, like
most dictatorial regimes, only agrees to that which costs them nothing to do
so. Consider the 1928 Kellogg-Briand
Act. Throughout the Harding/Coolidge
administrations, there was a concerted attempt to take war off the table and
help bring more belligerent countries in line with some fifty-four countries
signing along. This measure was joined
by earlier efforts such as the Washington Conference (1921-2) and the various
naval power agreements to limit tools of war.
However, such pie-in-the-sky idealism, further advanced by the impotent
League of Nations, only assuaged people’s concern temporarily. None of the agreements or the organization
prevented the carnage ahead.
The
hope for better things, with no history or facts to support such aspirations,
brought us to the infamous Munich Agreement, where the Allies, desperate to
avoid war, gave away Czechoslovakia in the late 1930s. Czechoslovakia was not present at those
meetings, and today, countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia, very concerned by
an Iran with nuclear weapons, are equally minimized and now equally anxious. To put it succinctly, many people are
concerned because they don’t trust the governments that formed the
agreement. The Saudis do not trust the Iranians
to carry out their obligations and they do not trust the Obama administration
or the Europeans to punish Iran should the Islamic Republic fail to uphold its
end. For Saudi Arabia, who fears a Shi’a
nuclear power, and the Israelis, who fear anyone nearby with a nuclear weapon,
a rather untenable situation has developed.
Despite the words of assurances by various European and American
leaders, the general sense is that it is doomed to fail because the aggressor
lacks the interest and the appeasers lack the intestinal fortitude for a fight.
Herein
lies the problem of all of the major conflicts that have wreaked havoc in the
20th century. The League of
Nations was destroyed because it failed to act against Italian aggression in
Albania and Ethiopia and when Japan invaded its neighbors. U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt felt that
by not joining the Spanish civil war, the fight between fascists and
republicans would not grow but it did when Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini
helped. The Allies partially created the
carnage of World War II because they failed to check Hitler’s rise to power. What will be said 40 years from now? Will European leaders and President Obama
further epitomize the folly of trusting untrustworthy dictatorships? History seems to suggest that the treaty
struck in Geneva will be an unmitigated disaster through either Iranian action
or pre-emptive strikes by Saudi Arabia or Israel.
From
the outside, it is easy to make judgments and none of us are privy to all the
factors that went into the construction of that treaty. I can only use the examples of leaders past
to understand what happens when you try to buy compliance with
concessions. One good side of the treaty
is that it lasts only six months and perhaps, with a clearer vision, world
leaders might take another approach. I’d
just hate to think the future of relations in the Middle East (and its
stability) is dependent upon the cooperation of a country like Iran. Let us hope our leaders have learned from
history instead of just repeating it.