In
1995, the Canadian province of Quebec and the political party Bloc Québécois
put on a referendum to separate from Canada.
This was in the aftermath of the Bloc Québécois’ electoral success in parliamentary
elections a couple of years earlier. It
was a mixture of indignation and unrealistic thinking that pushed the party
toward independence and when the vote was tallied, they lost by less than one
percent. A month from now, following success
in recent parliamentary elections, the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) seeks to
separate from the United Kingdom. Once more, a mixture of
historical indignation and blinding optimism is powering this move.
Scotland’s
First Minister Alex Salmond leads a raucous but determined effort to revive the
efforts of old that played out under the guidance of Robert the Bruce and was
fertilized by Scottish blood on the fields in Bannockburn. However, things are different and the issues
are not quite about idealistic notions of independence and the green glens of
Scotland but rather the sides are splitting over mundane economic issues such
as oil and currency. Mr. Salmond extolls
the vitality of the Scottish economy but fails to paint the picture of the
context of the British economy.
Oil
from the North Sea is at the heart of Scottish vitality and could make the
difference between Scottish success and failure. British Prime Minister David Cameron says
that the success of oil and gas from the North Sea has been bolstered by the
weight of the kingdom as a whole.
Meanwhile, opponents to the SNP question the wisdom of putting all your
eggs in a basket that will no longer be viable in the not-so-distant
future. Mr. Cameron has taken the fight
to Mr. Salmond’s territory with recent cabinet meetings in Scotland (something
about which the SNP mocked) and a reinvigorated attack by unionists
in the Scottish parliament. The
opponents may be on to something but what is Mr. Salmond’s plan if London plays
hardball regarding access to North Sea resources?
On
another front, the question of currency has emerged. Mr. Salmond has said that the Scots would
remain on the pound but British political parties predict that such a move will
never happen and the Treasury has warned of such a scenario. Unionists in the Scottish parliament and
British observers have asked what Mr. Salmond’s pound-less plan is. He has not been able to provide an answer but
the movement soldiers on. Much like
experts on the Bible, you have various opinions and depending on what side you
are on, you can find an expert that validates your approach. However, without the pound, where does that
leave Scotland? It seems unlikely that the
Scottish economy, absent of the economic support from the rest of the kingdom
and the international security of the pound, would be able to maintain its
current vibrancy.
The
Scottish independence referendum also calls in many other questions ranging
from immigration to the European Union to its relationship with London going
forward. Quebec realized it did not have
a viable chance outside the Canadian confederation. Other movements such as Flanders’ attempt to
separate from Belgium or Catalonia’s desire to separate from Spain suffer from
the same issue. Of recent attempts, only
the Kurds have a decent chance to exist and prosper outside its current
geopolitical status. For Scotland, it
has enjoyed increased autonomy as part of a devolutionary movement over the
last decades. At the moment, it has the
best of both worlds. It would be a shame
if a “yes” vote ruined each of them.