Recently
and outside the attention of most American newscasts, an uprising has occurred
and, apparently, succeeded in the Ukraine.
At the center of the debate has been an argument about the future
direction of the country – either towards Europe or Russia. The recently deposed and now missing
president, Viktor Yanukovych, bent towards the money and support from Moscow
while dismissing the demands of the people who largely looked to the economic
prosperity and political freedom of the West.
The state of the Ukraine today is of prime importance to the future of
Russian hegemony, EU expansion and American relevance.
In
2010, Mr. Yanukovych defeated Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who rejected the
election results and would soon be arrested and jailed for her protests against
a “rigged” outcome. There were voices
from the West who objected to the arrest of Prime Minister Tymoshenko but
nothing changed. Fast forward to
November of 2013 and while an ailing Ms. Tymoshenko labored in jail, President
Yanukovych announced his intent to back away from trade with the EU and instead
move closer to Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
This marked the beginning of the protests that dominated downtown Kiev,
the country’s capital, with crowds not seen since the Orange Revolution of
2004.
Relationship
between the Russian-oriented government and the European-oriented population
grew worse when Mr. Putin extended a monetary lifeline. In January, the presence of protestors in
Maiden Square in Kiev grew as the parliament passed anti-protest laws. In the last couple of weeks, events have
taken a draconian level as government snipers took aim at defenseless
protestors as part of an outburst of violence that lasted several days and led
to the death of nearly 80 and the wounding of hundreds more. In the last few days, this strange story has
grown more so, if that is possible. A
compromise deal was struck on 21 February that would include, among other
things, new elections but by the following day, Mr. Yanukovych disappeared and
Ms. Tymoshenko was released from jail.
The
Ukraine is an interesting country. The
population is a divided one with western side of the country more European
while the eastern part still speaking Russian and more in tuned with Moscow
than Brussels. However, the last couple
of months have shown the brutality and heavy-handedness of President Yanukovych
and even his most ardent supporters have withdrawn. This does not mean that the cause of the Kiev
protestors is widely embraced. Indeed,
people in the east are more likely to see this as a type of coup d’état. Yet, the country still has a fugitive
president and a people looking for some type of respite in the immediate
aftermath.
As
of now, the intentions of Mr. Putin are the most scrutinized. His desires to create a neo-Soviet Union seem
to be a concern for many. Meanwhile, there
are those who are pressuring the various capitals of the West to take a more
active role in supporting the protesting Ukrainians. For President Obama, he needs to be the voice
for freedom and liberty – in doing so, he needs to echo the core values of the
American people and throw his support behind the protestors. The Ukrainian government has chosen an
interim president – Oleksandr Turchynov – who is also a close political ally of
Ms. Tymoshenko and the president has urged for national unity. On the horizon is the strong presidential
candidacy of former boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, who is an avid supporter
of a pro-Europe movement.
It
is difficult to say how the Ukraine will solve its issues. Such issues are plentiful and there are many
voices seeking a redress of past and perceived slights and oppression. The Ukraine has a potentially prosperous and
viable future. However, that will not
happen until the new crisis is averted and Mr. Putin is politely but firmly
kept at arm’s length. It would not serve
the Ukraine to act petulant toward its former communist overseers but the
country’s salvation rests in its ability to take control of internal affairs. If it can do this, it would certainly serve
as a harbinger of good things to come for the Ukrainians.