The Dangers of the Upcoming Mexican Elections

With the approaching Mexican presidential elections, there has been a great deal of turmoil and unpredictability that culminated in recent polls, released and called into question this week.  The polls showed Enrique Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in the lead.  However, the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and its candidate, former Mexico City mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, are only a few points behind.  The ruling party, the National Action Party (PAN) and its candidate, Josefina Vázquez Mota is third.  In the midst of all this jockeying are some important possible consequences to the Mexican elections.

Since the writing of the new Mexican constitution in the 1920s, in the aftermath of the Mexican civil war, only one party existed and the PRI kept a stranglehold over the government and the direction of the country for the subsequent eighty years.  As one might find in one-party states, the PRI was known for horrible corruption, connection to “unsavory” types to say the least and an institutional disregard for the lives and lot of ordinary Mexicans.  In 2000, Vicente Fox became the first non-PRI president.  Over the last twelve years, Mr. Fox and current president, Felipe Calderón, have sought to put in place a series of reforms to change the calcified rapacity that existed under the PRI. 

It would be, potentially, very dangerous for the PRI to return to the presidency in Mexico.  Mr. Nieto has said that his time as the governor of the state of Mexico and its economic success could be segued into Mexico as a country.  He blasted the failed reforms and policies of the PAN but not all is as it appears.  First of all, Mexico’s economy has done quite well over the last twelve years.  Its GDP, GDP growth rate and its GDP per capita are all on the rise.  There is a greater level of true democracy seen in Mexico than at any time in its history.  As for the PRI attacks on the PAN, it is more complicated.  The PRI has maintained a sizeable minority in the Mexican parliament and the majority of Mexican states are run by the PRI.  This has put the formerly authoritarian single-party group in a strong position to obfuscate the government’s plans. 

Of course, the biggest charge levied on the PAN is the violence that has characterized the country over the last couple of years.  Yet, there is something positive to be taken from this.  Even with the horrific tales of violence and mass killings, deaths are down overall.  Additionally, the amount of stories reported and the gun battles that have dotted the countryside suggest it’s a reaction.  Comfortable drug cartels do not make trouble for themselves and the violence suggests that the government is making headway in their efforts.  Having said that, the government needs to press their work because the gang violence has the potential of destroying the many gains Mexico has made since 2000.

What does Mexico have to lose by turning to the PRI?  I imagine there is a small chance that PRI has seen the error of its historical ways.  However, that would require an organizational introspection and reform that is not supported by the evidence.  The violence with drug cartels has forced Mexicans to reconsider the direction of their country and the PAN might suffer as a result.  It does not help that Ms. Mota has received less than lukewarm support from President Calderón and Mr. Fox.  A return of the PRI can lead to a return to the previous way of doing things in Mexico.  That could make the cartel violence pale in comparison.   

At the turn of the 20^th-century, the United States went through a progressive period where institutional corruption and illegality were combated.  Movements spanning the spectrum attacked one societal, industrial and governmental ill after another.  Mexico needs its own progressive movement and the leadership with the courage to confront those bringing the country down.  The PRI has not shown a capacity to do this.  Whether the PAN or PRD can, only time will tell.