The Dangers of a Second Term

Well, it has been nearly two and a half months and, with the inauguration coming up, I’ve worked through the stages of grief and come to terms with a second term for Mr. Obama.  I try to be philosophical about it and having to keep a neutral face and tone with my government students certainly helps.  In keeping with a purely non-partisan tone and in an attempt to exercise my deep desire to educate people on history, the idea of a two-term president is worth considering and evaluating.  If the past is anything to go on, the president will not have it as easy as his most glossy-eyed acolytes sincerely hope. 

There is a certain ebb and flow when it comes to the two-term presidents.  Of the first seven presidents, only two failed to earn a second term.  John Adams was guilty of running afoul of his own party to uphold his country’s best interests.  John Quincy Adams, the former’s son, was the victim of perception and the fact that many felt he obtained the highest office in a less than dignified way.  Between 1837 and 1912, there were only two who managed to win a second term (save Abraham Lincoln who never really saw his second term).  Ulysses S. Grant goes down in history as overseeing one of the most corrupt administrations and Grover Cleveland likely spent most of his second term wishing he had stayed in Buffalo.  In the 20^th century, war required a steady hand and the voters doubled down (quadrupled down in the case of the latter) with Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt.  In recent years, five of the last eight presidents (four of the last five) have earned a second term. 

With regards to the second term itself, history is not pretty.   Six presidents (Jefferson, Jackson, Grant, Cleveland, Nixon and Bush) faced severe economic challenges, many of which would extend beyond their second term.  Four presidents (Madison, Wilson, Roosevelt and Truman) faced conflict abroad.  President Roosevelt had the easiest out with regards to the Spanish Civil War.  Yet, historians argue effectively that his lack of involvement made the upcoming World War more dangerous and difficult to overcome.  Three presidents (Nixon, Reagan and Clinton) faced scandals – two of which were the product of personal weaknesses and the other, perhaps, symptoms of an early onset of Alzheimer’s disease.  Three presidents (Monroe, Eisenhower and Nixon) faced serious domestic turmoil that threatened the unity of the country or the prestige of the government. 

What will President Obama face?  It will be interesting how the French action in Mali will play itself out.  The French and President Hollande have weighed into a situation, the likes of which I thought they learned their lessons from Algeria and Viet Nam.  Yet, the Mali people need help and absent American leadership, who used to direct these sorts of things, the French and the African Union are, for the moment, going at it alone.  It remains to be seen just how far the president is willing to push his Pacific strategy and emphasis but dealing with China and keeping them in check will remain a problematic objective.  Worst of all, the president will continue to deal with insolent Iran and an impending conflagration when Israel loses faith in the U.S. to prevent nuclear proliferation.   

On the domestic front, the president will face the ramifications of his Affordable Care Act.  Nancy Pelosi said we will not know how it will play out until it is in place but once that happens, the unforeseen consequences will be a struggle with which the president will have to contend.  The economy poses an ongoing threat to his domestic policies and the president will be plagued with concern about how the Americans respond.  The gun issue, to the anti-gun crowd, seems self-evident and they often speak as if they are incredulous that anyone would disagree with them.  However, the National Rifle Association is growing in membership and money in light of the president’s anti-gun policy and especially in light of the Newtown massacre.  While opinion inside the beltway seems incontrovertible, beyond lies a different story. 

Will President Obama avoid the pitfalls of presidents past?  History would suggest not.  However, the president’s second term is, to an extent, in his hands.  How well will he work with Republicans?  How well will he be able to control his own party, particularly those in Congress, and get them on board with his policies?  How well will Mr. Obama’s new cabinet meld into their new jobs?  How proactive will he be on those issues unfolding overseas?  As an American, I hope for the best.  As an historian, I know the deck is stacked.