Egyptians have shaken off the dictatorship they long resented and have the political power they have long craved. Given the history of autocrats that have ruled the country since the Nasser-led coup in 1952, it is surprising that the Egyptians would vote for groups without much connection to and respect for democratic rule. The military has stepped in and commandeered the election process by suggesting that the elections were not valid given the unstable conditions of the country and the fact that not all members of Egyptian society are represented in the proportional parliament.
This is an interesting dilemma for the Obama administration. It abdicated responsibility when the Egyptian uprising began, content to lob condemnation of Mr. Mubarak from afar. Worse, after the uprising was complete, it did not see a role in helping Egyptians prepare for and conduct a proper election. Furthermore, with “Islamists” taking some two-thirds of the Egyptian parliament, the government could be in the hands of an organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, that many Western powers fear and do not trust.
The current military rulers, making up the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), is likely equally unsure about the Muslim Brotherhood and what its leadership would mean to the rule of the country, the upholding of its treaties and the threat it would pose to other countries. These threats would have to be defended by the military. Increasing the military’s unease with the recent election results is the connection between it and Western advisors over the decades.
What makes matters worse, if the West believes that the winning parties (the Muslim Brotherhood and the more conservative Nour Party) are ultimately dangerous to Egypt’s neighbors and the West’s allies, they have lost the opportunity to do anything about it. To some degree, when one pushes for democracy, you have to accept and deal with the results. Are these organizations good for Egypt? It is difficult to think so from afar but for ordinary Egyptians, they apparently think so.
The Muslim Brotherhood has had its collective noses pressed against the division between it and the power structure for decades. It has clamored for recognition and political power and now, it is on the cusp of having it. Yet, the military will not let it come easily. Will the measures of the SCAF turn the populace against the military? Will more protests and perhaps, riots, take place? If so, what role does the West play? If the U.S. and Europe come in on the side of the military, it will further ensconce our image as anti-Arab and pro-anything-that-favors-the-west.
From afar, it is difficult to trust the Muslim Brotherhood. Its intentions and its stance on Egypt’s long held treaties (more importantly with Israel) cannot be trusted. It has a record of speeches and declarations that stretches for the better part of a century that defines the organization. The Brotherhood will likely have its chance to rule and do so responsibly. I hope it rises to the challenge.
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