The Beginning of an Uncertain Era

Greece is a wonderful country.  We visited a couple of summers ago and we met helpful and generous men and women who were happy to show off their country and culture.  However, in a crisis not seen since the collapse of the military junta in 1974, Greece has lived on a tipping point and today, they went to the polls where if public opinion is to be believed, the radical leftist party Syriza will win a convincing victory.  Dangers lie on what such a victory would mean for Greece, austerity measures and Europe as a whole.  

Throughout European capitals, there are concerns about Syriza and its charismatic leader, Alexis Tsipras.  He is seeking to unseat Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, he who seeks to continue the austerity measures placed upon Greece to pay back its debt.  Greece’s public debt is 176% of the gross domestic product.  This is a shocking number but in recent months, Greece has slowly climbed out of its recession, unemployment is down and by most measures, the birthplace of democracy is on the rise.  However, it will take years to fully recover and Mr. Tsipras and his populist rhetoric is called for a massive restructuring of the European binds.   

When speaking of the Europeans in the aftermath of World War One, who sought a way out of war debt, U.S. President Calvin Coolidge said, “Well, they hired the money, didn’t they?”  With the shoe on the other foot, European leaders must be asking themselves the same thing because Mr. Tsipras has declared that Greece will not continue the austerity measures and does not feel beholden to Europe’s demand.  Strangely, at the same time, he also declares that Greece will not leave the euro.  Well, Greeks might want to dust off their old collection of drachmas because that will not be Greece’s decision.  Mr. Tsipras might also be threatening the much-needed $7b in aid they are set to receive from the money lenders. 

As I’ve written before, Greece has institutionalized and entrenched traits of corruption and incompetent economic policies.  The corruption spans the spectrum from the highest Greek politician to the average citizen who does not trust their government; therefore they don’t pay their taxes.  This is a nation in the throes of withdrawal symptoms from previous, reckless behavior.  Mr. Tsipras has promised to tone down his earlier rhetoric which railed against the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and its central bank who has demanded Greece’s recent economic policy.  However, words said or not said mean nothing if actions remain true to his nature.   

Alexis Tsipras assured victory leaves only the question as to whether Syriza will win and outright majority or not.  If not, Mr. Tsipras will have to figure out a coalition that will cross the Rubicon with him.  That may not be that easy.  European leaders, primarily German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Holland are gearing for a confrontation that could greatly compromise the euro and the current European economic structure.  Much like Greece, Europe and the EU are on the verge of dealing with the consequences of its past actions.  On a euro high, the EU were quick to draw in the Mediterranean states over a decade ago.   

As I finish this article, it appears that indeed the Syriza has won its expectant victory and the Greek people have turned their back on the success of the Samaras government.  Mr. Tsipras is about to confront the reality of Greece’s situation.  If he can look into the abyss and still pick a fight with the continent, the next few years could have a reverberation that will shake Europe and the world.  Many in the U.S. may not have Greece atop of mind but the governmental actions on that beautiful peninsula will make an impact.  One can only hope that no matter what happens, lessons are learned and mistakes are not repeated.

How Possible is a Ukrainian Paradox?

There has been so much going on in the last couple of weeks, it was difficult to know what to write.  However, the events in the Ukraine with a presidential election vote have led some to cast a worrying glance to eastward.  A great deal has been spoken with regards to the motives and designs of Russian President Vladimir Putin, including a couple of articles on this blog.  However, with the election, the question has to be asked about the intent and abilities of the new Ukrainian president.  How does one live next to a ravenous neighbor like Russia?  The Ukraine might want to consider the path taken by Finland as suggested by some but such a path is fraught with danger.

Former Canadian Prime Minister, Pierre Trudeau once compared his country’s proximity to the U.S. with sleeping with an elephant – always keeping one eye open in the event it rolls over in the middle of the night.  The Ukraine finds itself in a similar situation.  In the years after World War II, Finland under the leadership of Juho Paasikivi and Urho Kekkonen navigated its relationship with the Soviet Union through a policy of capitulation and deference while maintaining its independence.  Certainly when one compares Finland to the besieged countries of Eastern Europe, the Finns held a special status.  The Ukraine’s political leaders can certainly endeavor to mollify the Russians but the country lacks the military strength and the united population that Finland enjoyed.   

The Ukrainian government must consider this because as the leadership of the U.S. and Europe are presently constituted, there is little chance that the former Soviet republic would get military help in the event of an invasion.  Unless the Ukrainians can build up a military that can force the Russians to hesitate, a la Finland or Cold War-era Yugoslavia, they must accept Russian dominance.  By recent news accounts, the new president of the Ukraine is the chocolatier magnet Petro Poroshenko and giving his connections in the eastern part of the country, he can follow the Finnish model of first placating the Russians.  First, he must reject NATO.  The Ukraine joining NATO is not going to happen without a more aggressive Russia knocking on its doors.  Mr. Poroshenko can then incorporate a neutral approach – to become the new Switzerland of Europe.  This would require the Ukraine to also reject military cooperation with the Russians but in order to build trust with its eastern neighbors.  The more committed to neutrality the Ukraine is, the less concerned the Russians will be.   

Post World War II, the Finns accepted the idea that the Soviets needed to be appeased.  Finland had a fairly united population which made the moves easier if not still controversial.  President Kekkonen’s “Finnish Paradox” which stated the closer Finland grew towards Russia, the freer they would be can only be achieved with a unified population.  It is just not there for the Ukraine.  For one, the vast majority of Ukrainians are more westward focused.  We are not talking about a large segment of the population that is supporting the thugs in the east – even in the east.  If, however, the new president made some innocuous gestures to the Russians, that might help alleviate tensions.  President-elect Poroshenko could renew natural gas talks with the President Putin and promise to regulate the country’s interactions with the European Union.  The western, pro-Europe Ukrainians will be nervous but there is a new reality with which to deal.  

Though some pundits have brought up Finland, it is not a fit here.  The Ukraine does not have the military prowess nor the united population that allowed Finland to remain more-or-less independent throughout the Cold War.  However, there are political maneuverings and neutrality options that could ease the concern of the Russians.  This said with the understanding that the U.S. and the Europeans have neither the will nor the leadership to take a stronger stance.  Given the limited options available to the Ukraine, it could be the best course of action to take.

An Eastern Dilemma

Recently and outside the attention of most American newscasts, an uprising has occurred and, apparently, succeeded in the Ukraine.  At the center of the debate has been an argument about the future direction of the country – either towards Europe or Russia.  The recently deposed and now missing president, Viktor Yanukovych, bent towards the money and support from Moscow while dismissing the demands of the people who largely looked to the economic prosperity and political freedom of the West.  The state of the Ukraine today is of prime importance to the future of Russian hegemony, EU expansion and American relevance.   

In 2010, Mr. Yanukovych defeated Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who rejected the election results and would soon be arrested and jailed for her protests against a “rigged” outcome.  There were voices from the West who objected to the arrest of Prime Minister Tymoshenko but nothing changed.  Fast forward to November of 2013 and while an ailing Ms. Tymoshenko labored in jail, President Yanukovych announced his intent to back away from trade with the EU and instead move closer to Vladimir Putin’s Russia.  This marked the beginning of the protests that dominated downtown Kiev, the country’s capital, with crowds not seen since the Orange Revolution of 2004.  

Relationship between the Russian-oriented government and the European-oriented population grew worse when Mr. Putin extended a monetary lifeline.  In January, the presence of protestors in Maiden Square in Kiev grew as the parliament passed anti-protest laws.  In the last couple of weeks, events have taken a draconian level as government snipers took aim at defenseless protestors as part of an outburst of violence that lasted several days and led to the death of nearly 80 and the wounding of hundreds more.  In the last few days, this strange story has grown more so, if that is possible.  A compromise deal was struck on 21 February that would include, among other things, new elections but by the following day, Mr. Yanukovych disappeared and Ms. Tymoshenko was released from jail. 

The Ukraine is an interesting country.  The population is a divided one with western side of the country more European while the eastern part still speaking Russian and more in tuned with Moscow than Brussels.  However, the last couple of months have shown the brutality and heavy-handedness of President Yanukovych and even his most ardent supporters have withdrawn.  This does not mean that the cause of the Kiev protestors is widely embraced.  Indeed, people in the east are more likely to see this as a type of coup d’état.  Yet, the country still has a fugitive president and a people looking for some type of respite in the immediate aftermath.  

As of now, the intentions of Mr. Putin are the most scrutinized.  His desires to create a neo-Soviet Union seem to be a concern for many.  Meanwhile, there are those who are pressuring the various capitals of the West to take a more active role in supporting the protesting Ukrainians.  For President Obama, he needs to be the voice for freedom and liberty – in doing so, he needs to echo the core values of the American people and throw his support behind the protestors.  The Ukrainian government has chosen an interim president – Oleksandr Turchynov – who is also a close political ally of Ms. Tymoshenko and the president has urged for national unity.  On the horizon is the strong presidential candidacy of former boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, who is an avid supporter of a pro-Europe movement. 

It is difficult to say how the Ukraine will solve its issues.  Such issues are plentiful and there are many voices seeking a redress of past and perceived slights and oppression.  The Ukraine has a potentially prosperous and viable future.  However, that will not happen until the new crisis is averted and Mr. Putin is politely but firmly kept at arm’s length.  It would not serve the Ukraine to act petulant toward its former communist overseers but the country’s salvation rests in its ability to take control of internal affairs.  If it can do this, it would certainly serve as a harbinger of good things to come for the Ukrainians.       

The Gathering of Storm Clouds

There are a series of events that are transpiring that could quickly destabilize various regions around the world.  In the past, the United States played a large and influential role in settling situations and calming fears – allowing for “cooler heads to prevail.”  In the past, the United States displayed a leadership that could convince otherwise truculent world leaders to compromise or stand down.  Critics of American foreign policy denounced the overbearing and bullying democracy.  President Obama feels that the U.S. has inappropriately and insensitively projected itself on world affairs in the past and promised not to follow that same path.  Activists around the world applauded the declaration.  Yet, in the Middle East and the Far East, things are quickly deteriorating and it begs the question if a stronger president could not have stemmed the tide. 

A while back, I worried that Syria was turning into a Rwanda.  Today, the international community has allowed a government to butcher its own people on a massive scale.  In the absence of international action or leadership, organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood have moved in to help the rebels.  However, the bloodshed continues and the government remains unrepentant even as its structure crumbles around them.  A new envoy, Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi, now has the unenviable task of convincing a government who has ignored international pressure for over a year to put aside its aggression on its own people with little tangible outside help from the Americans and Europeans. 

To the southwest, Israeli leaders have given up hope of the international community rendering aid and are in the process of considering, if reports are to be believed, a strategic attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.  Israel has, unfortunately, needed to take this path before when it attacked and destroyed Iraq’s nascent nuclear reactor in 1981.  Recent reports on Iran’s nuclear capabilities suggest it is further along than anyone thought.  Not only does such developments threaten Israel but it is reasonable to suggest that predominantly Sunni Muslim countries are also at risk – not to mention western Europe and other U.S. allies.  While many international activists chastise Israel and despair of its “militaristic” tendencies, Israel might be forced to do what years of diplomacy have failed to accomplish. 

On a group of Japanese controlled islands, a bit of opera is playing out between the Japanese government and activists from China. The Senkaku islands are the center of a debate as to who controls the area. When the Japanese Coast Guard detained and questioned the activists, Beijing issued a strong condemnation as anti-Japanese protests erupted through the country. At stake for these islands south of Okinawa and just north of Taiwan are a litany of gas fields and a heavily traveled commercial shipping lane. China declares ancient rights to the islands but Japan has controlled them since the late 1800s.  To what extent China would be willing to fight over the islands is uncertain but two obdurate, tradition-rich and stubborn countries at odds is a point of concern.  Unfortunately, no one outside the region seems to notice.
 
Any one of these incidents can, by themselves, create the kind of foreign policy headache that risks the lives of tens of thousands. A strong and influential hand has traditionally been sought out from the United States but at present, it appears to be absent. As time goes by, the European Union grows increasingly pre-occupied with holding its economic structure in place. The Arab League has proven, to date, to be as ineffective and toothless as the organization it was patterned after – the United Nations. The world community releases one paper condemnation and outrage after another but things continue to deteriorate.

The president is pre-occupied by the coming election as any president would but Mr. Obama also needs to understand that he cannot focus solely on November. The boldness he displayed in ending the Osama bin Laden threat is required once more but he seems reluctant to enter the fray. If this is what we can expect from the president with an additional four years, perhaps we should take a longer look at Mr. Romney. Sadly though, if talk is to be believed, some of the situations could collapse long before the November election.